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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.