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When Vladimir Putin visited India in the previous decade, the international order looked entirely distinct. That short trip, curtailed by the pandemic, focused on talks on economic and military ties between the two nations.

Not long after, the full-scale invasion of its neighbor would turn the Russian leader into a figure of international condemnation, significantly restricting his diplomatic travel.

Additionally, that period came before a significant shift in ties between Washington and Delhi, marked by inflammatory statements and the introduction of substantial trade tariffs.

"In this context, the significance of this diplomatic mission to meet Modi is profound, serving as a symbol of enduring ties and a defiance of external pressure," analysts note.

A Critical Juncture for Both Nations

The high-level meeting takes place at a delicate moment. President Putin arrives after dismissing latest peace proposals for Ukraine, bolstered by reported gains by Russian forces.

"For Russia, the key significance of this engagement is its very occurrence," commented a prominent analyst based in Moscow. "It indicates a movement toward a form of normal international relations."

From Delhi's standpoint, the stakes are particularly elevated. The country faces a difficult international environment, characterized by a less engaged United States, a diminished Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

This delicate balance was underscored just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats published a public commentary criticizing Russia's peace efforts. This prompted a sharp rebuke from Indian officials, who labeled it an inappropriate diplomatic practice.

The Enduring Challenge from the North

The historical partnership dates back to the Cold War era and remains firmly rooted, with Moscow historically being Delhi's primary defense supplier. This alliance was generally accepted by the West until a recent shift.

For years, Western nations ignored India's substantial purchases of discounted Russian oil. However, in the wake of stalled diplomacy, pressure mounted, leading to punitive tariffs and a major chill in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"In response, India has returned to its default strategy of maintaining multiple options," noted a foreign policy expert. "This demonstrates to the US that it has other choices and is waiting to see how the global dynamics settle."

Beyond global diplomacy, India's core motivation with Russia is geography. "China continues to be the greatest threat to India, and for decades, India has relied on Russia as a continental balancer against China," the analyst stated.

The deepening Moscow-Beijing axis has caused concern in Delhi, prompting efforts to prevent an excessively close bond between its northern neighbor and its traditional ally.

This concern has also spurred India's drive to reduce its defense procurement, decreasing its reliance on Russian equipment from a dominant share to a reduced portion in recent years.

"Delhi will try to strike a balance: buy sufficient Russian weaponry to keep the partnership alive, but avoid overly reliant that a supply disruption would leave it vulnerable," the analyst remarked.

The Oil Question

Increased trade relations is likely to be a key agenda item. The Russian leader has recently stressed plans to take cooperation with India to a "qualitatively new level", in spite of Western sanctions.

The matter of crude oil imports remains central. While the Indian government has vowed to continue buying Russian oil, recent restrictions have slowed activity from the private sector. Simultaneously, India has agreed to boost imports of US energy.

A Kremlin spokesperson acknowledged "obstacles" in economic cooperation but insisted it would proceed uninterrupted. The official downplayed the impact of sanctions, stating they would cause only "insignificant" and "temporary" disruptions and that Russia possesses the "technology" to circumvent them.

Diplomatic Constraints

When the two leaders sit down, the issue of Ukraine is likely to be mentioned mainly through India's standard call for dialogue and peace.

"While the Indian leader has access to both sides, India lacks the diplomatic clout to significantly influence the war," the analyst said. "Aside from encouraging talks, its ability to make a difference is limited."

In the end, notwithstanding the visible friendship between the two leaders, the partnership is at its core one of "pure realpolitik," guided by national interest in a volatile world.